Market Trends Prediction for March-April 2026

The market should get busier, but softer on pricing than the national market.
I expect more listings, more contracts than winter, flat to slightly lower prices in many Florida submarkets, and better negotiating leverage for buyers, especially in condos and in areas with longer days on market. That view is based on Florida’s January closed-sale and pending-sale data, current mortgage rates, and the normal spring seasonal pattern.

Here is the read-through.

Florida entered 2026 with better activity but softer pricing. In January, statewide single-family closed sales rose 5.9% year over year and condo-townhouse sales rose 5.1%. At the same time, the median single-family sale price fell 1.2% to $405,000 and the median condo-townhouse price fell 2.4% to $305,000. That is a classic sign of a market that is moving, but not overheating.

The strongest short-term predictor for the next month is usually pending sales and new listings, because closings lag contracts. Florida’s January data showed new listings up 7.0% for single-family homes and 2.7% for condos/townhomes, while new pending sales jumped 15.2% for single-family and 16.9% for condos/townhomes. Since closed sales often occur 30 to 90+ days after contracts are written, that points to decent March-April closing flow, assuming mortgage-rate volatility does not spike materially.

Inventory tells the other half of the story. Florida Realtors reported 5.2 months of supply for existing single-family homes in January and 9.7 months of supply for condos/townhouses. In practice, that means the single-family market is closer to balanced, while the condo segment is much softer and more buyer-friendly. Over the next month, that should keep pressure on condo sellers to price sharply and make concessions, while well-priced single-family homes can still move.

Mortgage rates are supportive, but not low enough to create a frenzy. Freddie Mac’s survey shows the 30-year fixed averaged 6.00% as of March 5, 2026, versus 6.63% a year earlier. That improvement helps affordability enough to bring some buyers back into the market, but 6% is still restrictive compared with the ultra-low-rate era. So in Florida, rates are likely to support more activity, not aggressive price acceleration.

Nationally, the broader market is also improving only gradually, which supports this Florida view. U.S. existing-home sales rose 1.7% in February 2026 to a 4.09 million annualized pace, but annual sales were still down and affordability remains tight. Redfin also reported that buyers remain cautious, homes are taking longer to sell nationally, and sellers are listing more homes ahead of spring. Florida tends to amplify those conditions because of high carrying costs and more variable local demand.

For Florida specifically, the biggest reason I would not expect a strong near-term price pop is that cost pressure is still real. Realtor.com’s Florida market page shows a median list price of $420,000, roughly 89 days on market, and a sale-to-list ratio near 97%, which implies homes are generally not closing at full ask. That is consistent with a market where buyers are active but selective.

Redfin’s statewide Florida snapshot is even more conservative: in January 2026, Florida’s median sale price was $412,200, basically flat year over year, homes sold in a median 82 days, and the number of homes sold was down 2.9% from a year ago. Redfin’s inventory page also showed a large number of homes for sale and roughly 8 months of supply statewide, reinforcing the idea that buyers have options.

My Florida forecast for the next 30 days

Single-family homes:
Expect a steady spring pickup in showings, pendings, and closings, but with prices mostly flat to slightly down in many areas unless inventory is unusually tight. Homes that are clean, priced correctly, and insurance-ready should still move.

Condos/townhomes:
Expect continued buyer leverage. With nearly 9.7 months of supply statewide in January, plus financing and carrying-cost issues in parts of the condo market, this is the segment most likely to see longer market times, price cuts, and seller concessions over the next month.

South Florida:
Likely softer than the state average in condos, with buyers scrutinizing HOA budgets, reserves, insurance, and assessments more heavily. WLRN reported that Broward’s condo market was the weakest in the region in January, with sales down, prices falling, and inventory growing.

What this means by audience

For buyers:
The next month should be one of the better short windows Florida buyers have had in a while. More listings and longer market times mean more room to negotiate price, seller credits, repairs, rate buydowns, and condo due diligence.

For sellers:
You can still sell, but pricing discipline matters more than it did in the tighter-pandemic market. Florida Realtors’ own economist emphasized that rising demand has helped absorb listings, but inventory is improving, which raises the penalty for overpricing.

For Realtors and lenders:
The opportunity is in speed, certainty, and payment strategy, not just “lowest rate” messaging. In a market with more buyer choice and slower absorption, agents and lenders who can structure strong offers, explain carrying costs clearly, and move fast on clean files should win disproportionate share. That is an inference from the inventory, pricing, and rate environment.

Bottom line

For March to early April 2026, Florida looks like a more active but still buyer-tilted market:

• Transactions: up from winter

• Inventory: still ample

• Prices: mostly flat to slightly soft

• Negotiation power: strongest for buyers, especially condos

• Best-positioned sellers: realistic, well-presented, properly priced homes

Delilah Fils-Aime | Mortgage Loan Officer | NMLS# 2733702 | O: (434) 623-9286 C: (561) 839-7045 | [email protected]